Scoping of Policy Impacts for Regulating E-cigarettes (SPIRE): a data and decision-analytic model mapping project

Vapes, known as e-cigarettes, are lower risk products compared to conventional cigarettes and have become a popular stop smoking aid. However, vapes are being developed to appeal to non-smoking customers, particularly young people, and the long-term health impacts of using vapes remain uncertain. Governments therefore need to develop policies to maximise the benefits and minimise the harms of vapes. Mathematical models can help to understand how potential vape policy options would influence individual-level behaviour and ultimately impact population-level outcomes.

Focussing on the UK context, the SPIRE project sought to learn what type of quantitative research about vapes would be most useful for policy making, what data already exists and what new data are needed to inform future modelling studies.

This project involved two workshops with key UK policy makers, non-governmental vape policy experts, lay members, and national and international researchers in the field. The workshops were used to prioritise future vaping policy options, key outcomes and populations, and to evaluate how they would work to change behaviour and identify unintended effects of the policies. In between workshops, iterative conceptual modelling and evidence searching was undertaken to identify the best types of quantitative models to inform policy decisions, determine what data already exists to go into these types of models, and what new data would need to be collected. A final report was produced and reviewed by all stakeholders.

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