Editorial questions proposed prognosis requirement in assisted dying legislation

An editorial published in The British Medical Journal (BMJ) offers a thoughtful and timely perspective on a proposed key safeguard in assisted dying legislation – suggesting that patients must be ‘reasonably expected’ to die within six months to qualify. With assisted dying bills currently under review in both Westminster and Holyrood, the piece raises pressing questions about the reliability of medical predictions and the potential impact on patient care.

The opinion piece, co-authored by Usher’s Scott Murray (Emeritus Professor of Primary Palliative Care) and University of Cambridge’s Simon Noah Etkind (Assistant Professor of Palliative Care), reflects on the significant challenges in accurately predicting life expectancy.

Scott Murray has long challenged the ability to accurately predict a six-month prognosis, arguing that palliative and supportive care should begin earlier and continue throughout often unpredictable disease trajectories until the end-of-life. He draws on over 30 years of experience as a GP, caring for hundreds of people during the final stages of life, combined with extensive research into their experiences and the realities of prognostication.

This editorial builds on the ongoing work of the Usher Institute’s Primary Palliative Care Research Group, which conducts research and teaching to explore and realise the potential of palliative care to be delivered by generalists in the community and doctors and nurses in hospitals.

Cite as

Murray S A, Etkind S N. Assisted dying and the difficulties of predicting end of life BMJ 2025; 388 :r490 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.r490 [12 March 2025]

Further information

Full editorial available via the BMJ website

Primary Palliative Care Research Group | Usher Institute